Perceptions of environmental risks in Mozambique : implications for the success of adaptation and coping strategies

Policies to promote adaptation climate risks often rely on the willing cooperation of the intended beneficiaries. If these beneficiaries disagree with policy makers and programme managers about the need for adaptation, or the effectiveness of the measures they are being asked to undertake, then implementation of the policies will fail. A case study of a resettlement programme in Mozambique shows this to be the case. Farmers and policy-maker disagreed about the seriousness of climate risks, and the potential negative consequences of proposed adaptive measures. A project to provide more information about climate change to farmers did not change their beliefs. The results highlight the need for active dialog across stakeholder groups, as a necessary condition for formulating policies that can then be successfully implemented.Hazard Risk Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Applying Climate Information in Africa An Assessment of Current Knowledge

Informatio

Economists and Ecologists: Different Frames of Reference for Global Climate Change

Economists and ecologists, in general, have offered differing opinions about the seriousness of climate change and the need for rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Economists have tended to urge caution, focusing on the potential for large-scale cutbacks to upset the economy. Ecologists have tended to focus on the potential for catastrophic losses from climate change, and have urged extensive shifts in policy. This paper uses the tools of cost benefit analysis and the decision sciences to examine why members of the two disciplines often reach different conclusions. First, economists and ecologists start from different perspectives about what is the point of reference against which policies should be judged. Second, economists and ecologists tend to apply different discount rates to future impacts of climate change. Third, economists and ecologists are likely to interpret differently the substantive findings and expressed uncertainties of formal cost-benefit analysis. Using a ..

Water saving potentials and possible trade-offs for future food and energy supply

The sufficient supply of food and energy requires large amounts of fresh water. Mainly required for irrigation, but also processing and cooling purposes, water is one of the essential resources in both sectors. Rising global population numbers and economic development could likely cause an increase in natural resource demand over the coming decades, while at the same time climate change might lead to lower overall water availability. The result could be an increased competition for water resources mainly in water-stressed regions of the world in the future. In this study we explore a set of possible changes in consumption patterns in the agricultural and energy sector that could be primarily motivated by other goals than water conservation measures—for example personal health and climate change mitigation targets, and estimate the indirect effect such trends would have on global water requirements until 2050. Looking at five world regions, we investigated three possible changes regarding future food preferences, and two possible changes in future resource preferences for electricity and transport fuels. We find that while an increase in food supply as a result of higher protein demand would lead to an increase in water demand as well, this trend could be counteracted by other potential dietary shifts such as a reduction in grains and sugars. In the energy sector we find that an increasing water demand can be limited through specific resource and technology choices, while a significant growth of first-generation biofuels would lead to a drastic rise in water demand, potentially exceeding the water requirements for food supply. Looking at the two sectors together, we conclude that an overall increase in water demand for both food and energy is not inevitable and that changes in food and energy preferences could indeed lead to an alleviation of water resource use despite rising population numbers.ISSN:0959-3780ISSN:1872-949

Mechanisms for Enhancing the Credibility of an Adviser: Prepayment and Aligned Incentives

We tested the effectiveness of prepayment for advice and aligned incentives as mechanisms for enhancing trust in unfamiliar advisers in decision-making under uncertainty. Participants were low-income Zimbabweans who played two rounds of the Monty Hall three-door game. In round 1, participants who purchased advice were significantly more likely to follow advice for how to win the game than were participants who received free advice. In round 2, the apparent effectiveness of advisers’ suggestions in round 1 moderated participants’ propensity to follow advice. If the round 1 advice appeared wrong, the credibility enhancing benefits of prepayment diminished. If the advice appeared right, the benefits of prepayment maintained. Hypotheses with regard to the benefits of aligned incentives received only weak support.

Costs of reducing water use of concentrating solar power to sustainable levels: Scenarios for North Africa

Concentrating solar power (CSP) has the potential to become a leading sustainable energy technology for the European electricity system. In order to reach a substantial share in the energy mix, European investment in CSP appears most profitable in North Africa, where solar potential is significantly higher than in southern Europe. As well as sufficient solar irradiance, however, the majority of today's CSP plants also require a considerable amount of water, primarily for cooling purposes. In this paper we examine water usage associated with CSP in North Africa, and the cost penalties associated with technologies that could reduce those needs. We inspect four representative sites to compare the ecological and economical drawbacks from conventional and alternative cooling systems, depending on the local environment, and including an outlook with climate change to the mid-century. Scaling our results up to a regional level indicates that the use of wet cooling technologies would likely be unsustainable. Dry cooling systems, as well as sourcing of alternative water supplies, would allow for sustainable operation. Their cost penalty would be minor compared to the variance in CSP costs due to different average solar irradiance values.Concentrating solar power Power plant cooling Climate change